PRMIA Exam I: Finance Theory, Financial Instruments, Financial Markets ? 2015 Edition Exam

This question is based upon a weather derivative contract traded on the CME in the US. For each day, 'Heating-Degree-Days' (HDD) is calculated as equal to 65 degrees Fahrenheit minus the daily average temperature. The daily average temperature is based upon the temperature reported by the Earth Satellite Corporation using a specified automated weather station. Based upon daily values of HDD, an aggregated number called the 'CME degree days index' is calculated for each contract month. In other words, the index for a particular month is just the aggregation of the 'HDD' value for each of the days of that month. Each contract settles at the end of the month at a value equal to $20 x Degree Days Index. (In a similar way, 'Cooling Degree Days' are also calculated and a futures contract offered, except that CDD is equal to the average daily temperature minus 65 degrees). (Source: CME's website at CMEGroup.com)

In the given question, we are interested in hedging against the possibility of the temperature being too low. This means we should buy the HDD futures contract (the lower the temperature, the higher the difference of the average temperature from 65 degrees, and the higher the settlement). Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer. The lower the actual temperature turns out to be, the higher the payout to the grower. It would not be wise to wait till January to buy the contract as by then the prices of the contract would have already risen if the grower's fears of a colder January appear to be coming true. He can hedge his exposure by immediately locking in the January prices.

Commodity futures prices can be expressed as the summation of their spot prices and the carrying costs. Therefore any changes in either of these two would be a risk to the futures prices, and Choice 'b' is the correct answer. It is common to decompose complex commodity portfolios into underlying equivalent spot positions and the carrying costs, which includes interest, convenience yield and storage costs. For liquid commodities such as gold where changes of a short squeeze are low, interest costs dominate the carryings costs. Choice 'b' is the correct answer as it is most complete and covers the elements in the other choices. The 'lease rate' for a commodity is equivalent to (Fwd Price - Spot Price)/Spot Price, and comprises the interest and storage costs and the convenience yield. The other choices do not represent complete answers.

An m x n FRA is an agreement to borrow money for a period starting at time m and ending at time n at the contracted rate. Therefore, the buyer of the 3 x 6 FRA has committed to borrow $1m at the beginning of 3 months and return it at the end of 6 months, ie a total borrowing period of 3 months at a rate of 5%. Of course, the $1m is never actually exchanged, and at the beginning of the 3 month period when the next three months' interest rate is known (6%), the parties merely exchange the difference in the interest. SInce this interest was only due at the end of the 6 months and is being exchanged at the 3 month time point, it will have to be discounted to its present value.

The correct answer to this question is =(1,000,000 * (6% - 5%) * 3/12)/(1 + (6%*3/12))=$2463.05. Since interest rates rose, the borrower gained as he has the right to borrow at a lower rate, and therefore the seller will pay the borrower.

(Here:

- $1m is the notional

- 6% - 5% represents the difference between the contracted and the realized interest rates

- 3/12 is the 3 month period from month 3 to 6

- Finally, we divide by the current interest rate for 3 months to present value the payment from month 6 to month 3)

Commodity futures prices can be expressed as the summation of their spot prices and the carrying costs. Therefore any changes in either of these two would be a risk to the futures prices, and Choice 'b' is the correct answer. It is common to decompose complex commodity portfolios into underlying equivalent spot positions and the carrying costs, which includes interest, convenience yield and storage costs. For liquid commodities such as gold where changes of a short squeeze are low, interest costs dominate the carryings costs. Choice 'b' is the correct answer as it is most complete and covers the elements in the other choices. The 'lease rate' for a commodity is equivalent to (Fwd Price - Spot Price)/Spot Price, and comprises the interest and storage costs and the convenience yield. The other choices do not represent complete answers.

There was no event such as the CDO squeeze in 2008. (Quite on the contrary, securitized products were selling at distressed prices.).

The silver squeeze of 1979-80 (Hunt brothers), the Chicago fire of 1872 (leading to a short squeeze on wheat), and the wheat squeeze (Hutchingson) of 1866 are real historical events that led to short squeezes in commodity markets. Choice 'b' is therefore the correct answer.

For the PRM exam, you should try to remember the event broadly, and the commodity involved.